Question: In Kidushin (37b), we learn this from "Moshvoseichem"!

Citation (37b): Why does it say "Moshvoseichem" regarding Shabbos? This is needed. One might have thought that since it is written with the Mo'ados, it requires Kidush Beis Din like Mo'ados. The verse teaches that this is not so.

Answer #1: The Drashah there is like Ben Azai, who expounds here '"Mo'adei Hash-m" was said, Hafaras Nedarim was not said.'

Answer #2: According to R. Yosi ha'Gelili we need two verses. Had it written only one, we would exclude only experts. Another verse was written to exclude even commoners.

Reference: I explained this in Bava Kama (82a. According to Midrash Tanchuma, that Moshe ascended on Av 30 to receive the latter Luchos, we must say that Elul had 30 days, in order that say that the latter Luchos were given on Yom Kipur.)

Explanation #1: People died also in the last year [in the Midbar], and they knew that the decree finished, for everyone who was 20 (or more, when they were counted);

Because they were mourners until part of the day of the 15th, the Dibur (intense Nevu'ah of Moshe) did not return until then, for Shechinah does not dwell amidst laziness or sadness;

This is like we find regarding Yakov. All the days that he was mourning over Yosef, the Shechinah did not dwell on him, like it says in Shabbos (30b).

Therefore, all the days of the Aveilus of Yisrael, the Dibur did not return, for in [Yisrael's] merit Hash-m spoke with Moshe;

Source - Citation (Mechilta - R. Yakov): "Leimor" - [Hash-m told Moshe] go tell [Yisrael] that in their merit I speak with you. [We know this,] for all 38 years that Hash-m was angry at Yisrael (after the Meraglim), He did not speak with Moshe and Aharon, for it says "when finished... (after everyone counted died, va'Ydaver Hash-m Elai)." (Rashi (Vayikra 1:1 DH Elav) brings from Toras Kohanim that Hash-m spoke only to Moshe! When it says "to Moshe and Aharon", it means that Moshe should say to Aharon. Perhaps Tosfos' words "with Moshe and Aharon" mean this - PF.)

Explanation #2: The Rashbam brought Midrash Eichah [that people did not die in the last year]. This is very difficult.

Question #1: If they did not die in the last year, why did the Dibur delay returning to Moshe more than a year [after the last people died]?

Question #2: If so, 16,000 and a remainder (less than 1000) should have died every year. According to Midrash Eichah, 15,000 and a remainder died every year!

Note: Tosfos assumes that only the evil Meraglim died when they returned in the second year. If people died also in the last year, 603,550 died over 38 years, an average of about 15,900 every year. If they did not die in the last year, they died over 37 years, an average of about 16,300 every year. Tosfos ignores about 15,000 who died from Korach's rebellion and the ensuing plague. We do not know how many were among the Yisraelim counted (males between 20 and 60, not from Levi), nor how many counted died with the Ma'apilim, or due to complaining (Bamidbar 11:1), or from the Slav. If in all more than 11,550 counted died from these, in any case an average of less than 16,000 died each Tish'ah b'Av.

Question #3: According to the opinion in the Yerushalmi in Mo'ed Katan that they all died 60 years old, this is a great Chidush. We must say that 15,000 and a remainder were born in Mitzrayim every year before this! (According to the Midrash that four fifths of Bnei Yisrael died during the plague of darkness, surely many more were born. It was special Hashgachah that this many survived of every age - PF.)

Question #4: The Simchah was not because the Dibur returned (the Gemara connotes that the 15th of Av was a Yom Tov due to return of the Dibur), rather, because the moon was full and they knew that the decree ceased from them!

Question #5: What was the Simchah that they died early the previous year? "Es Mispar Yamecha Amalei"! (Maharsha - they knew that only the 600,000 counted will die. When the 15th came, they realized that all had already died. This is reason to be sad, for it is a Brachah to live all one's allotted years!)

Question #6: If they died early the previous year, those who completed 20 years when they left [Mitzrayim] did not die when they were 60 (unlike the opinion in the Yerushalmi cited above. Do not say that there was no one between 20 and 21 when they left. The Torah) attributed [the count and the decree] to 20 years, because there were men exactly 20 (i.e. between 20 and 21)!

Explanation #2 (R. Tam): According to Midrash Eichah, they did not die early. Rather, in the last year the decree was annulled from them, and 15,000 and a remainder remained, those who should have died in the last year;

This is like we find regarding Chizkiyah. It says (Melachim 20:20, in a Nevu'ah) "command your house (what to do after you die), for you will die", and he lived much longer.

Comment - Implied question: It says "no man remained from them, except for Kalev ben Yefuneh and Yehoshua bin Nun"!

Answer #1: That means [that no man remained from] those who should have died before the decree was annulled [except for Kalev and Yehoshua. They should have died beforehand, for] Kalev and Yehoshua were 40 when the Meraglim were sent, like I explained above (117b).

Answer #2: Initially, the decree was even on men who were exactly 20. Afterwards, Hash-m had mercy on them, and only those who were at the time of the decree at least 20 and a month, only they died, for a month in another year is considered a year, but a day is not [considered a year];

This is like we say (Parah 1:3) about a Palgas (a sheep in its 13th month). The entire month it is not a Seh and not a ram.

Note: Also Sefer ha'Yashar (Teshuvos, 68:7) and Gur Aryeh (Shemos 12:5) say like Tosfos, that after a year it is not called a Seh. I do not know their source. The Mishnah says that a Palgas is not a Keves, and not a ram. Chulin 74b permits redeeming a firstborn donkey with an animal older than a year, from a Ribuy "Tifdeh". The Havah Amina to disqualify was from a Gezeirah Shavah "Seh-Seh", but not from the word Seh itself! Also, if Seh is only within one year, we should include from the Ribuy only what the Gezeirah Shavah would exclude (e.g. females), but not what the word Seh itself excludes! It is explicit there in Chidushei ha'Ran, and implicit in the Rashba, that Seh connotes even older than one year. Also Yalkut Shimoni (Yechezkel 383:45) expounds "Seh" to exclude a Bechor, and "Min ha'Tzon" to exclude a Palgas. This connotes that Seh does not exclude a Palgas!

In the last year, all who were exactly 20 (i.e. less than a month more than 20, at the time they were counted) remained. (This ends the comment.)

Support #1 (for Explanation #2): We find like this regarding skipping (making earlier) the deadline [for redemption]. If they merit - "Ki Ger Yihyeh Zar'acha" from Yitzchak. (The verse continues "... va'Avadum v'Inu Osam Arba Me'os Shanah]". Avraham's seed were considered Gerim (they did not own the land they lived in) for 400 years, i.e. from Yitzchak's birth until Yetzi'as Mitzrayim.) If they do not merit, "they will enslave and afflict them" (400 years of actual slavery).

Support #2: Now it is fine that due to the 15,000 and a remainder, the Dibur did not [return] directly until the 15th of Av of the last year, for they were proper to die, and they were sad about this, until the moon filled.

Repeat of Question #1 (against Rashbam): [If they did not die in the last year,] why did the Dibur delay returning to Moshe more than a year?

Answer: We can say also [for the Rashbam] that Shechinah does not rest amidst sadness, and they were sad, for they expected to die that year.

Answer (to Question #3): It says "15,000 and a remainder" [died every year]. It does not mean that every year [was the same], rather, most years. (Perhaps this means that this was the average.)

Question (against Rashbam): Why did they dig graves in the last year, since all who should have died, they died the previous year?

Everyone knew about himself that he was not between 20 and 60, among those that Moshe and Aharon counted!

Explanation: This Tana holds that Eliyahu is not Pinchas. If he were Pinchas, we could find less than seven! Ya'ir (ben Menasheh) saw Yakov, and he saw Pinchas!

He holds also that Serach bas Asher does not live forever.

Note: Tosfos did not ask about Og. Og saw both Shem (and according to the Midrash that Og survived the Mabul, surely he saw even Mesushelach, who died only a week before the Mabul) and Achiyah ha'Shiloni, so we could find less than seven! Perhaps we discuss only Tzadikim.